How to Develop Sports Betting Strategies

Sports Betting Strategies

All sports betting follows a strategy of sorts. Even those who appear to bet betting entirely casually are employing a strategy. These fans usually put money on sports that they watch, and specifically on players or teams that they know well so they may not need to necessarily check any statistics. These fans may be able to rely on their instincts, as they will probably be betting on the team they support, or a team they have watched each weekend.

This strategy is contrasted with punters who read through all of the statistics and try to place a bet using a more calculated method. In football, factors such as home advantage, the form of each team going into the match, head to head statistics, injured players and more, are all things to be aware of when planning bets.

Some punters may use more scientific methods such as the Kelly Criterion to determine how much the odds on a single bet are worth to them and how much they should bet with those odds. In the Kelly Criterion, the betting amount is calculated in the following way

Bid amount = ((Odds х Probability – 1) / (Odds - 1)) х Bankroll

The bid amount is how much the bettor should place, the odds are the decimal value of the odds of the bet. The probability is perhaps the most difficult part of this bet, as it is the variable for the possibility of the bet winning. If a bettor can find a calculated percentage of a team to win a game, they may be able to use this. Once the probability decimal is determined, it needs to be divided by 100 (if it is a percentage), to reach a number between 0 and 1.

The bankroll in this equation is the maximum bet that the bettor would place on the match.

For an example on how the Kelly Criterion works, a bettor may find a football match between Brazil and Argentina. The bettor has a maximum of $20 that they would play with, the odds on Brazil winning are 2.6 and the probability is 52%

2.6 x (0.52 - 1) / (2.6 - 1) = 0.78

0.78 x 20 = 15.6

In this case, the bettor should place $15.60. The Kelly Criterion does have a slightly better profit margin than betting without a system, but to find the probability of each bet is very difficult. Punters who calculate their bets usually avoid games where there are low odds, between 1.2-1.5. It is far more profitable in the system to try finding bets with longer odds and then trying to place a calculated portion of the budget on them.

Another way of structuring bets can be the use of multiple parlays.

Parlays are when multiple bets are combined into one, multiplying the odds together for longer odds.

Some punters may choose to make two or three parlays with contradictory bets. This means that it is impossible for all the parlays to win, but it is a way of reducing risk and opening up the chance of significant winnings. This tactic is risky too, but it can work for some punters who have a good knowledge of the sport, and they can lose little to nothing if they make the right predictions, with the chance of hitting some really big wins.

For example, the two parlays can look like this

• Brazil to win vs Argentina at odds 2.6
• France to win vs Sweden at odds 1.4

The second parlay may be

• Argentina to win vs Brazil at odds 1.9
• France to win vs Sweden at odds 1.4

If $10 is placed on the first parlay, it can win $36.40, and if the second bet wins, a $10 will bring $26.60. Usually, sports fans will try to find a bet with good odds and a great possibility of winning, such as France to win vs Sweden in this example, and then use that as the bet in the parlay that multiplies the values of the other bets. This does mean that it is possible to lose both bets, as if the “safe bet” loses, then all of the parlays are lost.

How to Create a Sports Betting Strategy

There are many different ways to form strategies. It is important to try out different types of bets on the sport of your preference. For example with football, there are many bets such as total goals, handicaps, game props, player props and many more. Some bettors find more success when trying out different bets and combining them in parlays.